The global cannabis market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 22% from 2018-2021, with the United States being one of the fastest growing markets. As legalization spreads across North America, Europe and Asia, demand for cannabis products will continue to increase.
The BDSA released an update to its worldwide cannabis market prediction today, which includes a five-year rolling projection by nation, state, province, channel, and category. Cannabis sales in 2021 are expected to be around $31 billion, up 41% from 2020. Furthermore, the BDSA predicts that worldwide cannabis sales will increase from $30.6 billion in 2021 to $62.1 billion in 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15%.
“The cannabis business continues to expand at a breakneck pace, especially in the United States,” said Kelly Nielsen, BDSA’s Vice President of Insights and Analytics. “New markets, both medicinal and adult-use, are forming at a quicker rate than in the past, and states are moving from medical-only to completely legal in less time.”
The BDSA predicts that cannabis sales in the United States would exceed $24 billion in 2021, a 38 percent increase over 2020 sales, and will reach $47.6 billion in 2026, a 14 percent CAGR. The following are some of the factors that contribute to the United States’ growth:
- During the first half of 2021, mature markets in the United States continued to expand well. California, the world’s largest legal cannabis market, had the biggest increase, up 25%.
- New marketplaces are sprouting up at an increasing pace. In the first half of 2021, Illinois and Massachusetts spent more than twice what they did in the first half of 2020, while Arizona became the quickest state on record to convert from medical-only to adult-use marijuana.
- Emerging markets are a long-term trend that drives growth in the out-years. Arizona, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Virginia, and South Dakota are all emerging markets.
- Marijuana sales in Arizona are expected to reach $1 billion in 2021. According to the Arizona Department of Income (AZDOR), combined medicinal and recreational marijuana tax revenue totaled $115,701,426 from January to August 2021.
Canada Cannabis sales in Canada are expected to reach $4 billion in 2021 and $6.7 billion in 2026, representing an 11 percent CAGR. Ontario, Canada’s biggest cannabis market, is leading the charge, with YoY growth of over 90% in 2021.
Markets Around the World International sales are expected to reach almost $7.9 billion in 2026, up from $1.7 billion in 2021, according to the BDSA. Medical cannabis markets in Mexico, Germany, and the United Kingdom continue to fuel international sales.